#DeepSeek

AIChinese AI companies earn about 10% of the combined AI-related revenue of OpenAI and Anthropic, according to Epoch AI as of September 2026. Their main income streams are consumer apps, API access, enterprise and government deployments, licensing fees, and AI-complemented businesses such as cloud and advertising. Releasing model weights lets third-party hosts compete on price, which weakens API margins for model-focused firms like Z.ai and DeepSeek.

Why it matters: The piece maps how Chinese AI firms earn revenue and why open-weight releases weaken API pricing, giving context for comparing them with US frontier labs.

AIEpoch AI estimates that high-bandwidth memory shipped in 2025–27 could eventually support about 30–170 million concurrent frontier-model agents once fully deployed and allocated. Using DeepSeek V4 Pro serving benchmarks, the estimate rises to about 1.9 billion concurrent agents. The authors compare the implied API-equivalent spending of $2.6–5.3 trillion per year with projected developer revenue of roughly $1 trillion by end-2027, suggesting demand may lag supply.

Why it matters: The analysis converts HBM shipment data into concurrent agent capacity and compares it with projected API revenue, showing where compute buildout may outpace demand.