Why an FCC ban on Chinese optical transceivers would not reduce U.S. dependence

The FCC's proposed ban on new Chinese optical transceivers targets the top of the supply stack, but the author argues it leaves the dependencies that matter untouched.

The analysis traces the module, laser, indium phosphide wafer, and indium metal layers, finding that China controls the wafers and refined indium while U.S. firms depend on Chinese-made substrates.

The author concludes that a module-level rule would take years to replace lost capacity and would not change control of the lower layers.