AI Futures Project shortens Automated Coder timelines to mid 2028

AI Futures Project moved Daniel Kokotajlo's Automated Coder median from late 2029 to mid 2028 and Eli's from early 2032 to mid 2030. The main reasons cited are a faster METR time horizon doubling time and the impressive results of Claude Opus 4.6. The authors also say progress in agentic coding has been faster than expected over the past 3 to 5 months.