https://x.com/i/article/2107473094155927552
AI won't take your job anytime soon. In 10 yrs, only 5% of what humans do will be replaced by AI
This is the prediction Nobel laureate Daron Acemoglu makes in the first issue of The Humanist Review, our new magazine exploring the future of AI, published by MAI.
He argues we need to stop building AI to replace people, and start building it to make them better at their jobs.
- 52% of Americans are worried about AI's impact on their jobs. The fear is overblown, and it's steering how we build AI.
- AI isn't in the productivity statistics yet. Most firms using it aren't seeing real gains. Expect roughly 1.5% added to GDP over 10 years, not a revolution.
- Electricity took decades to spread. New York and London had power stations by 1881, yet only about half of factories and homes used it by the 1920s. AI's adoption will likely be even slower, because companies have to reorganize around it.
- Even 99% accuracy isn't enough for full automation. The last 1% is the hard part.
- We're making a mistake by forcing AI to mimic human intelligence. The two are fundamentally different, so the goal should be to pair them, not to have one take over everything.
- We shouldn’t expect much more than about 5% of what humans do to be replaced by AI.
- The better path is pro-worker AI: tools that make people better at their jobs, and they're buildable today.
- The US taxes labor at over 25% and capital at close to zero, which effectively subsidizes automation.
- The seven largest tech companies make up 60% of the NASDAQ. That concentration crowds out new ideas.
Read his full essay: https://humanistreview.ai/issue-1/acemoglu-ai-replace-workers/