Economist Acemoglu estimates AI will automate only about 5% of jobs within 10 years

Nobel economist Daron Acemoglu estimates AI could technically automate about 20% of work, but adoption limits will cut actual automation to roughly 5% within 10 years.

He said the figure is admittedly only an estimate, noting AI models excel in lab settings but underperform when enterprises deploy them in real environments. Microsoft AI CEO Mustafa Suleyman shared the forecast on X on October 6.