Forecast puts China's commercial EUV lithography in late 2030s

The post argues that China's commercial-scale EUV machines should be forecast for the late 2030s and immersion DUV for the mid-2030s, using ASML's development timeline as a reference.

It also weighs factors that could push these estimates earlier or later, including state funding, espionage, talent flows, and the use of AI in R&D. The authors note that forecasts placing either milestone in the 2020s would need strong justification.