AI Futures Project grades its 2025 AI 2027 predictions against reality

AI Futures Project grades its AI 2027 scenario for 2025 and finds quantitative progress running at roughly 65% of the predicted pace, later revised to about 75%.

Most qualitative predictions, such as the rise of coding agents, are judged on pace, while SWE-bench-Verified progress was slower than forecast and OpenAI's valuation trailed the scenario.

The authors say their timelines lengthened over 2025 and plan to keep updating forecasts through 2026.