Ahmad Al-Dahle argues AI capex is both short on compute and overbuilt

Ahmad Al-Dahle argues that AI infrastructure faces both a compute shortage and overbuilding, with the four largest hyperscalers planning roughly $725 billion of capex in 2026, up 77 percent from last year.

He describes a "mutually assured construction" dynamic in which every well-capitalized player buys the same insurance against falling behind, so the industry overbuilds by construction.